Forecasting location-specific soaring parameters in the European Alps is challenging due to the nature of the topography. Steep slopes and deep valleys are still not fully resolved by the numerical forecast models. Neither are micrometeorological features such as thermals. Statistical or AI adjustments can only help to a limited extent.
It is therefore important to think of a forecast as a screening tool that provides a probability range for the desired soaring conditions rather than gospel. It is equally important to develop an understanding of model limitations and meteorological concepts. This can help you adjust the forecast on your phone with the reality observed when you arrive at launch.
A quick review
Before discounting a particular forecast as rubbish, it is worth reviewing how numerical weather forecasts work. A global forecast from six or twelve hours ago undergoes data assimilation. This means that observational data...
