When we’re looking ahead to good days, we usually mainly focus on the height of cloudbase and the strength of the thermals, and we concentrate most of our energies on looking at lapse rates and the quality of the air mass. However, soil moisture levels are critical – and often ignored. Indeed, they’re one of the most important factors for thermal structure and strength, but the nuances of how soil moisture varies across different terrain is often overlooked, meaning our forecasting is far from accurate.
This image shows the surface moisture and temperature mapping as provided by the GFS global forecasting model. It neglects to differentiate for local differences and therefore reduces the quality of thermal forecasting This image includes localised information...
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